The simultaneous decline of several trade-related indicators should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown.
RBI must balance the need for improving domestic bank credit demand and respond to lower inflation.
Global growth, according to IMF, likely to be lower at 3.3%
The IMF's predictions for India's near-term growth may seem rosy, but the usual caveats apply - that is, we are apt to under-perform.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
The record breaking spree was led by index heavyweights, financials and metal stocks.
Finance secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey on Sunday hinted that the government was working on another stimulus package but he refrained from giving a timeframe.
Rajan, who has also served as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said he had no idea what statistics are pointing at currently and "a revamp" was needed "to really figure out what India's true growth rate is".
With this subdued forecast, India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation. However, it is among the only two major economies, which will register a positive growth rate in 2020. The other being China, for which the IMF has projected a growth rate of 1.2 per cent.
UPA-II has yielded a 7.5 per cent average annual growth rate
India's GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7 per cent during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released on Thursday. Amid overall decline in economic activities, some respite was provided by the agriculture sector and utility services like power and gas supply, which have been projected to post positive growth during the current fiscal ending March 2021.
Businesses are still taking time to adjust in the new tax regime, which would weigh on growth rates for the financial year closing today.
The 30-share Sensex ended higher by 177.46 points at 28,885.21 and the Nifty gained 63.90 points at 8,778.30.
Governor Rajan can be more unambiguously pro-growth.
'Even before the outbreak of the flu, it had become clear that the tax revenue numbers for 2019-2020 were overestimated,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
Media has gone beyond its traditional boundaries.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We need to do more to accelerate growth.'
India's fiscal deficit trends are a bit like an alcoholic trying, unsuccessfully, to reform. Virtue does not last for too long, says Shankar Acharya.
Even US equities are now back to end-2014 levels.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday due to profit booking in banking, financial and IT stocks after a recent rally. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 537.22 points or 0.94 per cent to end at 56,819.39 as 24 of its stocks declined. During the day, it tanked 772.57 points or 1.34 per cent to touch a low of 56,584.04. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 162.40 points or 0.94 per cent to 17,038.40 with 39 of its constituents ending in the red. Bajaj Finance was the biggest loser among Sensex stocks, dropping by 7.24 per cent.
Sanjay Kumar Singh suggests key factors investors need to keep an eye on while choosing the direct investment route.
Tight liquidity will hit over-leveraged and cash-hungry companies, spare conservative ones
When industrial output and inflation fall simultaneously, though it is both a piece of good and bad news, taken together they can signal clear signs of an economic slowdown.
Nearly half of the 20 indexes polled globally are now expected to end the year lower than where they started
Here are the key decisions announced by the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday.
Banks argued that loans of most lenders are funded primarily by retail deposits and not from the wholesale market as was the practice abroad
'The Reserve Bank's independence has remained a work in progress, an enduring challenge that the nation has been grappling with on an ongoing basis,' says RBI Deputy Governor Dr Viral Acharya.
Of the seven surveys presented under Modi govt, predictions of three were quite close to the actual GDP growth rate, one saw the base year change in between, but the last three were way off the mark.
Investors cheered a sharp decline in the Current Account Deficit, which stands at a 4 year low as exports picked up and gold imports reduced.
The new norms also seek to ensure that sufficient safeguards are put in place to avoid any misuse of its new powers and the required privacy of individuals is granted while conducting search and seizure operations.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the Union Budget.
In the year since UPA went out, the GDP has grown a mere 0.5 per cent, but this government claims a healthy GDP growth of 7.4 per cent allowing it to ecstatically claim outpacing China, says Mohan Guruswamy.
Indian economy is doing well and the performance of domestic stock markets is not as bad as that of other nations.
The Budget sets out a comprehensive vision.
It is clear as daylight to anyone that a charge or a cost to simply reduce interest on a floating rate loan is extortion, but this is exactly what the RBI has officially sanctioned, says Debashis Basu.
The corporate sector does not care from where the money is coming.
This Budget plans for an increase to 10.3% of GDP from 9.9%.
Indian economy about to take-off
